docs: TODO.substantiate register — the substantiation close-out

TODO.substantiate/01-paper-currency.md

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+# 01 — Paper currency: the three latex papers vs the Sept sprint
+
+Priority: P1. Status: OPEN.
+
+The papers (docs/paper-{arabic,hebrew,umbrella}/main.tex on rababa
+main) were last content-audited Aug 19 (commit 7771e8e, "r5 =
+2.6775/1.5965 canonical"). The September sprint invalidated large
+parts of their tables and framing. This item brings all three
+current, number-by-number against docs/RESULTS.md, and recompiles.
+
+## What changed since Aug 19 (must land in the papers)
+
+1. **Teachers: r5 -> r6 -> r7.** Canonical Arabic teacher is now r7
+   at **2.2864/1.3343** (r6 2.5793/1.5317 was the morph-aux win; r7
+   adds the news-domain mix). The umbrella headline still says
+   2.68/1.60 (r5).
+2. **Client tier: 8.259 -> 4.822 -> 4.5701.** The 2.0 rung (r7 labels
+   + Muon, E3/E4) and G2a (6 epochs) — 42%+ error reduction at
+   identical architecture. Paper-B lever table in PUBLICATION-NOTES
+   is the source.
+3. **The GLM family regression axis (complete 2026-09-02):**
+   GLM-5.2 2.5060 raw / 2.6911 zero-skip -> GLM-5.3-Flash 8.5721 /
+   8.7978 (reasoning_effort=low; thinking UNDIS ABLE — 400/1210) ->
+   GLM-5.3 9.9760 / 9.8971 -> glm-4.7-flash 13.0035 / 13.2256
+   (thinking-disabled, 12 passes past 429s). Attribution (rates over
+   GT-marked positions): wrong-haraqat axis 5.2 2.64% (matches r7's
+   2.62%) vs Flash 10.05% / 5.3 8.59% / 4.7 9.01%; missing axis 4.7
+   6.67% worst. Bootstrap CIs in RESULTS.md. Claude-3.7-Sonnet's
+   1.3941 (vendor-published) remains the one row ahead of r7.
+4. **E5/E6 negatives** (PUBLICATION-NOTES section 8): MTP-aux 5.0853
+   (+0.26pp vs 4.8218 control, preemption confound disclosed) and
+   constant-budget register swap 5.8057 — the data-vs-architecture
+   pair; levers that moved: optimizer (E3 −2.96pp) >> fresher
+   teacher labels (−0.47pp) > epochs (G2a −0.25pp... verify from
+   lever table).
+5. **E1 head-fp32 quantization fix** (PUBLICATION-NOTES section 5):
+   quantized head was the fragility; heb int8 9.34% -> 0.26% flips;
+   five-of-five rebuilt with flip CIs.
+6. **Hebrew: s46 Dicta surfaces 0.5209/0.2377/0.4523** + D-Nikud
+   publishes NO numbers on those corpora (their Nakdimon-test table
+   is the vendor row); angle-bracket matres protocol note. Hebrew
+   paper's modern-text gap framing changes.
+7. **Measurement discipline**: bootstrap-CI policy; empty-sentinel
+   resume guard (15.96 -> 8.57 story); protocol ledger existence.
+
+## Steps
+
+- [ ] Read all three main.tex fully; list every number and claim
+- [ ] Diff each against docs/RESULTS.md (the ledger) + EXPERIMENTS +
+      PUBLICATION-NOTES; replace superseded values
+- [ ] Weave the new findings into framing (esp. umbrella: the
+      frontier-regression result is now a headline contribution;
+      arabic: the lever ladder + negatives; hebrew: Dicta surfaces)
+- [ ] Recompile all three PDFs; visual sanity check
+- [ ] Commit via PR (docs); the tex trees are tracked on main
+
+## Sources to read
+
+- docs/RESULTS.md (ledger + GLM sections + Hebrew Dicta section)
+- ml-models docs/PUBLICATION-NOTES.md (sections 5, 8, Paper-B table)
+- ml-models docs/paper.adoc (sections already current — 431 lines;
+  the adoc is ahead of the latex; port from it)
+- ml-models docs/EXPERIMENTS.md (E1-E6 gates + verdicts)

TODO.substantiate/02-ce-curve-comparison.md

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+# 02 — E5/E6 CE-curve comparison vs run-006 at matched steps
+
+Priority: P1 (quick). Status: OPEN.
+
+Registered checkbox from TODO.training-work/03+04, never done: the
+aux/data levers' effect on convergence speed is itself a finding.
+
+## Steps
+
+- [ ] Extract per-step training CE for run-006 (control), E5
+      (run-007-r7-muon-mtp), E6 (run-008-tashkeela-mix) at matched
+      steps — from local run logs (/tmp/e5*.log, /tmp/e6_distill*.log)
+      and volume step dirs if logs are gone
+- [ ] Record a compact matched-steps table in EXPERIMENTS.md E5/E6
+      entries (no new plots unless trivial; the table is the record)
+- [ ] One-sentence finding in PUBLICATION-NOTES: did either lever
+      change convergence speed? (E6's register swap at constant
+      budget: expect similar CE; E5 with the fresh-head confound for
+      the final 23%: CE jump visible at step ~8,650 — disclose)
+
+## Caveat
+
+E5's curve carries the disclosed preemption confound (fresh aux head
+from step 8,500; resume loss 0.73 = 0.15*ln(384)+CE) — any CE jump
+at that step is the confound, not the lever.

TODO.substantiate/03-gkd-arming.md

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+# 03 — GKD rung: armed and owner-gated
+
+Priority: P2. Status: OPEN (arming is mine; LAUNCH IS THE OWNER'S).
+
+The last registered training lever (SOTA strategy 2025: "GKD is next
+lever"). On-policy distillation (student-sampled decoding vs teacher
+forcing) targeted at the client tier's domain gap.
+
+## Arming steps (mine, no launch)
+
+- [ ] Add `ara-diac-small-2-gkd` spec to distill_specs.yaml: same
+      control as run-006 (30k units, identical steps/schedule), delta
+      = GKD loss mixing (on-policy sequences sampled from the student
+      during training, scored by the frozen r7 teacher) — follow the
+      implementation notes in PUBLICATION-NOTES section on closing
+      the domain gap ("on-policy distillation; section-discussion")
+- [ ] Pre-register in EXPERIMENTS.md: gate adopt at <= 4.5218 (the
+      standing E-bar), honest-report band to 4.8218, prediction
+      4.3-4.7 (on-policy should attack the domain residual that E6's
+      swap did not)
+- [ ] Unit-level wiring check only (no GPU run): the sampler must use
+      the STUDENT's current weights, temperature-matched to greedy
+      inference
+
+## Launch
+
+Only on owner instruction (register 05 in TODO.publish). GPU budget:
+one A10G-class slot for ~11k steps.

TODO.substantiate/04-g2b-watch.md

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+# 04 — G2b verdict watch + cross-recording
+
+Priority: P2. Status: OPEN (dependent on other agents' run).
+
+G2b (48k units from full Tashkeela — the ADD direction) is in flight
+on the auto-chain. E6's swap-negative makes G2b the decisive test of
+the domain-coverage hypothesis: if ADD helps where SWAP hurt, the
+residual was budget-limited domain coverage; if ADD also fails, the
+residual is not domain-shaped at all.
+
+## Steps
+
+- [ ] Watch for final_eval.json under the G2b run dir (checkpoints
+      volume, spec per ml EXPERIMENTS.md G2b registration)
+- [ ] When it lands: verify against its registered gate; record the
+      E6-swap vs G2b-add pair in PUBLICATION-NOTES Paper-B framing
+- [ ] Do NOT duplicate-launch anything (other agents own the run;
+      modal app list showed their ephemeral apps)

TODO.substantiate/05-project-closeouts.md

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+# 05 — Project close-outs
+
+Priority: P3. Status: OPEN.
+
+## Issue closures (reversible, sanctioned "close superseded")
+
+- [ ] rababa #38 "Investigate case ending training" — superseded: the
+      r6 morphological-aux teacher directly targets iʿrāb (case
+      endings), verified 2.5793 -> r7 2.2864; the finding is recorded
+      in ml EXPERIMENTS + PUBLICATION-NOTES section on the aux-task
+      win. Close with that cross-reference.
+- [ ] rababa #41 "Farsi" — superseded: Persian models shipped in
+      interscript-ml (paper.adoc's SentenceBench homograph row);
+      point to the paper + models.yaml entries. Close.
+- [ ] #45 (repo split), #36/#37 (dataset/Farasa comparisons): leave
+      open — genuine roadmap items, not clearly superseded.
+
+## Legacy Dependabot alert dismissals (option A)
+
+- [ ] Dismiss the alerts targeting python/{arabic,hebrew}/
+      requirements.txt (reason: vulnerable_code_not_in_use — eager CI
+      is the live validator; the pins are provenance; TODO.publish/06
+      decision record). Keep root-floor alerts open until Dependabot
+      rescans post-#78.
+- [ ] If the API denies permission (needs security-events write),
+      report — dismissal from the security tab is then the owner's.
+
+## Register hygiene
+
+- [ ] After all items in this folder complete, update README.md index
+      statuses and mark the campaign registers closed in memory.

TODO.substantiate/README.md

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+# TODO.substantiate — the substantiation close-out
+
+Created 2026-09-03, from the post-campaign inventory. Everything the
+work needs to be fully substantiated: papers current, the registered
+loose ends closed, owner acts prepared. Campaign registers that are
+COMPLETE and closed: TODO.training-work, TODO.publish.
+
+## Index (priority order)
+
+| # | Item | Priority | Status | Blocked by |
+|---|---|---|---|---|
+| [01](01-paper-currency.md) | Three latex papers current with the Sept results | P1 — highest value | COMPLETE (rababa #80) — venue formatting/submission is the owner's | nothing |
+| [02](02-ce-curve-comparison.md) | E5/E6 CE-curve vs run-006 at matched steps | P1 — quick, mechanical | COMPLETE (ml #146) | nothing |
+| [03](03-gkd-arming.md) | GKD rung: arm spec + registration (launch = owner) | P2 | ARMED (ml #147) — launch on owner word | owner ordering |
+| [04](04-g2b-watch.md) | G2b verdict watch + cross-recording | P2 | WATCHING — no final_eval yet as of 2026-09-03; rung census: 8.26/7.56/4.83/5.29/5.08/4.57/5.09/5.81/5.78/73.95 | other agents' run |
+| [05](05-project-closeouts.md) | Issue closures #38/#41 + legacy alert dismissals | P3 | COMPLETE — #38/#41 closed with cross-refs; all 56 Dependabot alerts auto-FIXED by #48+#78 on rescan (no dismissals needed) | nothing |
+
+## Working rules (unchanged)
+
+- Protocol-matched numbers only; every paper number must trace to
+  rababa/docs/RESULTS.md (the ledger is ground truth).
+- Never fabricate; if a draft cites a superseded number, replace it
+  with the ledger value — never smooth over.
+- Owner-only acts (GKD launch, releases, alert dismissal if API
+  denies) are prepared, not executed.