Point-in-time, position-aware, multiscale probabilistic market-state workstation.
Not a brokerage. Not a trading ticket. All tape in this slice is synthetic and certified. Predictive claims stay on the evidence ladder — they are not silently promoted to validated.
A six-pane research workstation:
- Replay clock over a deterministic synthetic SPY session
- Position book (presets + Black–Scholes / Greeks)
- Feed × interval matrix (8 families × 6 intervals) with quality / timeframe / family gates
- Sparse expert mix (Trend / Revert / Vol / Liquidity)
- Outcome cones (PnL quantiles) and event probabilities
- Evidence ledger with provenance hashes and prequential pinball / Brier scores
- Baseline ladder: Unconditional → Regime → Linear quantile → ESSN-Lite → ESSN-RT
Geometry is an optional routing switch in this slice, not a certified sheaf claim.
npm install
npm run dev # http://localhost:8080
npm run typecheck
npm run buildRequires Node 22+.
| Claim | Status |
|---|---|
| Causal replay / frozen PIT state | Certified on synthetic tape |
| Independent commitment hashes | Certified |
| Prequential pinball / Brier vs realized path | Certified (synthetic) |
| Trained GRU / MoE weights | Not in this slice (closed-form routing) |
| Live market data | Not in this slice |
| E4 market-predictive claim | Unsupported |
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